Deportes Concepcion
Universidad Catolica
The model leans Universidad Catolica at 51%. Expected goals: Deportes Concepcion 0.89, Universidad Catolica 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%. Deportes Concepcion won 4 of their last 6; Universidad Catolica won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportes Concepcion | 17% | 5.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Universidad Catolica | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 1.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.2%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.7%
- 0–36.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Catolica −1| Deportes Concepcion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| +1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.