Ñublense
Deportes Concepción
The model leans Ñublense at 51%. Expected goals: Ñublense 1.54, Deportes Concepción 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%. Ñublense won 2 of their last 6; Deportes Concepción won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ñublense | 57% | 1.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Concepción | 15% | 6.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ñublense. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.6%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ñublense −1| Ñublense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 26% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.