Predictions · Chile Copa de la Liga · outside model coverage

O'Higgins

10
Won

Ñublense

The model leans O'Higgins at 50%. Expected goals: O'Higgins 1.59, Ñublense 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. O'Higgins won 3 of their last 6; Ñublense won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1O'Higgins49%2.03
XDraw27%3.64
2Ñublense23%4.32

Pick: O'Higgins. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.02
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.548%52%
3.527%73%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.9%
  • 1011.7%
  • 219.5%
  • 209.3%
  • 017.5%
  • 007.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: O'Higgins −0.5
O'Higgins lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%24%49%
-0.551%49%
051%25%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%15%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.