Predictions · Chile Primera · outside model coverage

Ñublense

22
Lost

Huachipato

The model leans Ñublense at 38%. Expected goals: Ñublense 1.32, Huachipato 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%. Ñublense won 2 of their last 6; Huachipato won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Ñublense41%2.43
XDraw30%3.33
2Huachipato29%3.47

Pick: Ñublense. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.07
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.9%
  • 1012.1%
  • 019.8%
  • 009.1%
  • 218.6%
  • 208.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Ñublense 0
Ñublense lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.520%80%
-120%23%58%
-0.542%58%
042%27%30%
+0.570%30%
+170%19%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.