Universidad Catolica
Ñublense
The model leans Universidad Catolica at 53%. Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 1.84, Ñublense 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Universidad Catolica won 3 of their last 6; Ñublense won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad Catolica | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Ñublense | 15% | 6.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.84 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.9%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.3%
- 0–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 39% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Catolica −1| Universidad Catolica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.