Universidad Catolica
Cobresal
The model leans Universidad Catolica at 69%. Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 2.99, Cobresal 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 54%. Universidad Catolica won 3 of their last 6; Cobresal won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad Catolica | 80% | 1.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Cobresal | 7% | 15.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.99 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.0%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–18.1%
- 3–18.1%
- 4–07.4%
- 1–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Catolica −2| Universidad Catolica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| -1 | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.