La Serena
Cobresal
The model leans La Serena at 50%. Expected goals: La Serena 2.10, Cobresal 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. La Serena won 1 of their last 6; Cobresal won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1La Serena | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Cobresal | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: La Serena. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.2%
- 2–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: La Serena −0.5| La Serena line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 21% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.