La Serena
Cobreloa
The model leans La Serena at 43%. Expected goals: La Serena 2.13, Cobreloa 1.73. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. La Serena won 1 of their last 6; Cobreloa won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1La Serena | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Cobreloa | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: La Serena. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.13 – 1.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.9%
- 3–25.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: La Serena −0.5| La Serena line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 20% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 21% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 16% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.