La Serena
Antofagasta
The model leans La Serena at 38%. Expected goals: La Serena 1.64, Antofagasta 1.49. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. La Serena won 1 of their last 6; Antofagasta won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1La Serena | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.88 | – | – | – |
| 2Antofagasta | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: La Serena. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: La Serena 0| La Serena line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 20% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 24% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 18% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.