Antofagasta
Santiago Wanderers
The model leans Antofagasta at 47%. Expected goals: Antofagasta 1.78, Santiago Wanderers 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. Antofagasta won 3 of their last 6; Santiago Wanderers won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Antofagasta | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Santiago Wanderers | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
Pick: Antofagasta. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.6%
- 0–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Antofagasta −0.5| Antofagasta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 23% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 23% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.