Santiago Wanderers
Union San Felipe
The model leans Santiago Wanderers at 64%. Expected goals: Santiago Wanderers 2.47, Union San Felipe 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 51%. Santiago Wanderers won 1 of their last 5; Union San Felipe won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santiago Wanderers | 73% | 1.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Union San Felipe | 9% | 10.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Santiago Wanderers. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.47 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%
- 3–09.6%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Santiago Wanderers −1.5| Santiago Wanderers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| -1 | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.