Union San Felipe
Deportes Recoleta
The model leans Deportes Recoleta at 36%. Expected goals: Union San Felipe 1.25, Deportes Recoleta 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Union San Felipe won 1 of their last 4; Deportes Recoleta won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union San Felipe | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Recoleta | 38% | 2.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportes Recoleta. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union San Felipe 0| Union San Felipe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.