Unión San Felipe
Deportes Santa Cruz
The model leans Unión San Felipe at 29%. Expected goals: Unión San Felipe 1.25, Deportes Santa Cruz 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%. Unión San Felipe won 1 of their last 4; Deportes Santa Cruz won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Unión San Felipe | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Santa Cruz | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Unión San Felipe. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Unión San Felipe 0| Unión San Felipe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 21% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.