San Marcos
Union San Felipe
The model leans San Marcos at 57%. Expected goals: San Marcos 1.72, Union San Felipe 0.53. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 65%. San Marcos won 0 of their last 6; Union San Felipe won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Marcos | 65% | 1.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Union San Felipe | 10% | 9.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Marcos. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 0.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.1%
- 2–015.5%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.9%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Marcos −1| San Marcos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 23% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 9% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.