Cobreloa
San Marcos
The model leans Cobreloa at 39%. Expected goals: Cobreloa 1.38, San Marcos 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Cobreloa won 2 of their last 4; San Marcos won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cobreloa | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| 2San Marcos | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cobreloa. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.3%
- 2–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cobreloa 0| Cobreloa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.