San Marcos
Deportes Iquique
The model leans San Marcos at 50%. Expected goals: San Marcos 1.58, Deportes Iquique 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. San Marcos won 0 of their last 6; Deportes Iquique won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Marcos | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Iquique | 17% | 5.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Marcos. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.9%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Marcos −0.5| San Marcos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 25% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.