Predictions · Cup Grp. A · outside model coverage

Deportes Iquique

31
Lost

Deportes Limache

The model leans Deportes Limache at 52%. Expected goals: Deportes Iquique 1.20, Deportes Limache 2.19. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%. Deportes Iquique won 3 of their last 6; Deportes Limache won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Deportes Iquique19%5.23
XDraw22%4.59
2Deportes Limache59%1.69

Pick: Deportes Limache. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.20 – 2.19
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.566%34%
3.544%56%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 129.7%
  • 118.8%
  • 028.1%
  • 017.4%
  • 137.1%
  • 035.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Deportes Limache −1
Deportes Iquique lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.58%92%
-18%12%80%
-0.520%80%
020%20%60%
+0.540%60%
+140%22%38%
+1.562%38%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.