Deportes Concepcion
Deportes Limache
The model leans Deportes Limache at 50%. Expected goals: Deportes Concepcion 1.12, Deportes Limache 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Deportes Concepcion won 4 of their last 6; Deportes Limache won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportes Concepcion | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Limache | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportes Limache. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportes Limache −0.5| Deportes Concepcion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 24% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.