Deportes Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
The model leans Deportes Concepcion at 38%. Expected goals: Deportes Concepcion 1.19, Universidad de Concepcion 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportes Concepcion | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Universidad de Concepcion | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportes Concepcion. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.8%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–08.4%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportes Concepcion 0| Deportes Concepcion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.