Puerto Montt
Deportes Concepcion
The model leans Puerto Montt at 29%. Expected goals: Puerto Montt 1.01, Deportes Concepcion 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 59%. Puerto Montt won 3 of their last 6; Deportes Concepcion won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Puerto Montt | 35% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Concepcion | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Puerto Montt. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 0–014.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.4%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Puerto Montt 0| Puerto Montt line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.