Deportes Concepcion
Coquimbo Unido
The model leans Coquimbo Unido at 50%. Expected goals: Deportes Concepcion 0.86, Coquimbo Unido 1.65. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Deportes Concepcion won 4 of their last 6; Coquimbo Unido won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportes Concepcion | 18% | 5.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Coquimbo Unido | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coquimbo Unido. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.86 – 1.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.1%
- 1–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coquimbo Unido −0.5| Deportes Concepcion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 24% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.