Deportes Concepcion
O'Higgins
The model leans O'Higgins at 43%. Expected goals: Deportes Concepcion 1.11, O'Higgins 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. Deportes Concepcion won 4 of their last 6; O'Higgins won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportes Concepcion | 26% | 3.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2O'Higgins | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: O'Higgins. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 24% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: O'Higgins −0.5| Deportes Concepcion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.