Predictions · Cup Grp. E · outside model coverage

O'Higgins

11
Lost

Union Espanola

The model leans O'Higgins at 62%. Expected goals: O'Higgins 2.42, Union Espanola 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 55%. O'Higgins won 3 of their last 6; Union Espanola won 1 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1O'Higgins70%1.42
XDraw18%5.41
2Union Espanola11%8.91

Pick: O'Higgins. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.42 – 0.89
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.564%36%
3.542%58%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 2010.7%
  • 219.5%
  • 108.8%
  • 308.6%
  • 117.9%
  • 317.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: O'Higgins −1.5
O'Higgins lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.549%51%
-149%22%29%
-0.571%29%
071%17%12%
+0.588%12%
+188%8%4%
+1.596%4%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.