O'Higgins
Union Espanola
The model leans O'Higgins at 62%. Expected goals: O'Higgins 2.42, Union Espanola 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 55%. O'Higgins won 3 of their last 6; Union Espanola won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1O'Higgins | 70% | 1.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Union Espanola | 11% | 8.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: O'Higgins. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.42 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–08.6%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: O'Higgins −1.5| O'Higgins line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.