Universidad Católica
O'Higgins
The model leans Universidad Católica at 53%. Expected goals: Universidad Católica 2.19, O'Higgins 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%. Universidad Católica won 3 of their last 6; O'Higgins won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad Católica | 61% | 1.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.63 | – | – | – |
| 2O'Higgins | 18% | 5.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Católica. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.19 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.2%
- 3–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Católica −1| Universidad Católica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 20% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.