Universidad Catolica
Deportes Copiapo
The model leans Universidad Catolica at 70%. Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 2.96, Deportes Copiapo 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 54%. Universidad Catolica won 3 of their last 6; Deportes Copiapo won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad Catolica | 83% | 1.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Copiapo | 5% | 20.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 83%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.96 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%
- 3–011.7%
- 4–08.7%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 3–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Catolica −2| Universidad Catolica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| -1 | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| -0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| 0 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.