Predictions · Chile Primera B · outside model coverage

Deportes Copiapo

11
Lost

San Luis

The model leans Deportes Copiapo at 42%. Expected goals: Deportes Copiapo 1.57, San Luis 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Deportes Copiapo won 1 of their last 6; San Luis won 2 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Deportes Copiapo45%2.21
XDraw27%3.66
2San Luis27%3.65

Pick: Deportes Copiapo. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.57 – 1.18
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.530%70%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.8%
  • 1010.1%
  • 219.3%
  • 207.9%
  • 017.5%
  • 127.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Deportes Copiapo −0.5
Deportes Copiapo lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%23%54%
-0.546%54%
046%25%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%17%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.