Universidad Catolica
San Luis
The model leans Universidad Catolica at 70%. Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 3.13, San Luis 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 52%. Universidad Catolica won 3 of their last 6; San Luis won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad Catolica | 84% | 1.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 8.92 | – | – | – |
| 2San Luis | 5% | 21.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 84%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.13 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 3–011.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 4–08.7%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Catolica −2| Universidad Catolica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| -1 | 67% | 18% | 16% |
| -0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| 0 | 84% | 10% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.