Universidad Catolica
La Serena
The model leans Universidad Catolica at 70%. Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 3.31, La Serena 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 58%. Universidad Catolica won 3 of their last 6; La Serena won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad Catolica | 82% | 1.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 8.72 | – | – | – |
| 2La Serena | 6% | 16.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 82%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.31 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 3–08.9%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–08.1%
- 4–07.4%
- 2–17.4%
- 4–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Catolica −2| Universidad Catolica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| -1 | 66% | 17% | 17% |
| -0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| 0 | 83% | 11% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.