Cobreloa
La Serena
The model leans Cobreloa at 50%. Expected goals: Cobreloa 2.33, La Serena 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%. Cobreloa won 2 of their last 4; La Serena won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cobreloa | 54% | 1.85 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.73 | – | – | – |
| 2La Serena | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cobreloa. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.33 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.8%
- 2–05.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cobreloa −0.5| Cobreloa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 21% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 20% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 14% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.