San Luis
San Marcos
The model leans San Marcos at 33%. Expected goals: San Luis 1.05, San Marcos 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. San Luis won 2 of their last 4; San Marcos won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Luis | 32% | 3.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | – | – | – |
| 2San Marcos | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Marcos. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Luis 0| San Luis line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.