Union Espanola
San Marcos
The model leans Union Espanola at 29%. Expected goals: Union Espanola 1.08, San Marcos 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. Union Espanola won 1 of their last 4; San Marcos won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union Espanola | 35% | 2.85 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
| 2San Marcos | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union Espanola. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–112.5%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union Espanola 0| Union Espanola line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 22% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.