Magallanes
Union Espanola
The model leans Magallanes at 37%. Expected goals: Magallanes 1.58, Union Espanola 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%. Magallanes won 2 of their last 3; Union Espanola won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Magallanes | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Union Espanola | 34% | 2.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Magallanes. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Magallanes 0| Magallanes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 21% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.