Palestino
Magallanes
The model leans Palestino at 67%. Expected goals: Palestino 2.74, Magallanes 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 57%. Palestino won 2 of their last 4; Magallanes won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palestino | 75% | 1.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Magallanes | 9% | 10.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Palestino. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.74 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.9%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.1%
- 1–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palestino −1.5| Palestino line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| -1 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.