Palestino
Audax Italiano
The model leans Palestino at 50%. Expected goals: Palestino 1.90, Audax Italiano 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Palestino won 2 of their last 4; Audax Italiano won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palestino | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Audax Italiano | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Palestino. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.90 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palestino −0.5| Palestino line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.