Universidad de Concepcion
Audax Italiano
The model leans Audax Italiano at 36%. Expected goals: Universidad de Concepcion 1.27, Audax Italiano 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad de Concepcion | 34% | 2.95 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Audax Italiano | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Audax Italiano. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad de Concepcion 0| Universidad de Concepcion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 26% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.