Predictions · Chile Primera · outside model coverage

Everton CD

11
Lost

Audax Italiano

The model leans Everton CD at 38%. Expected goals: Everton CD 1.31, Audax Italiano 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Everton CD won 0 of their last 3; Audax Italiano won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Everton CD41%2.45
XDraw30%3.31
2Audax Italiano29%3.44

Pick: Everton CD. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.07
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.542%58%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.0%
  • 1012.2%
  • 019.9%
  • 009.3%
  • 218.5%
  • 208.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Everton CD 0
Everton CD lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.519%81%
-119%23%58%
-0.542%58%
042%28%30%
+0.570%30%
+170%19%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.