Universidad Catolica
Everton CD
The model leans Universidad Catolica at 56%. Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 1.87, Everton CD 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Universidad Catolica won 3 of their last 6; Everton CD won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad Catolica | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Everton CD | 12% | 8.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.87 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.4%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.4%
- 0–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Catolica −1| Universidad Catolica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 21% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 10% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.