Audax Italiano
La Serena
The model leans Audax Italiano at 55%. Expected goals: Audax Italiano 2.55, La Serena 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 67%. Audax Italiano won 2 of their last 6; La Serena won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Audax Italiano | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
| 2La Serena | 17% | 6.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: Audax Italiano. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.55 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–06.1%
- 2–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Audax Italiano −1| Audax Italiano line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 21% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.