Predictions · Chile Primera · outside model coverage

Universidad de Chile

21
Won

Palestino

The model leans Universidad de Chile at 51%. Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 1.65, Palestino 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%. Universidad de Chile won 3 of their last 5; Palestino won 2 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Universidad de Chile58%1.71
XDraw26%3.78
2Palestino15%6.59

Pick: Universidad de Chile. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.73
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.542%58%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1015.3%
  • 2012.6%
  • 1111.1%
  • 009.3%
  • 219.2%
  • 306.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Universidad de Chile −1
Universidad de Chile lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%27%41%
-0.559%41%
059%24%16%
+0.584%16%
+184%12%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.