Universidad de Chile
Palestino
The model leans Universidad de Chile at 51%. Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 1.65, Palestino 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%. Universidad de Chile won 3 of their last 5; Palestino won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad de Chile | 58% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Palestino | 15% | 6.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad de Chile. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.3%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad de Chile −1| Universidad de Chile line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 24% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.