Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
The model leans Universidad de Chile at 60%. Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 1.73, Union La Calera 0.52. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 66%. Universidad de Chile won 3 of their last 5; Union La Calera won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad de Chile | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Union La Calera | 10% | 10.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad de Chile. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.73 – 0.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.3%
- 2–015.8%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–09.1%
- 2–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad de Chile −1| Universidad de Chile line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.