Predictions · Chile Copa de la Liga · outside model coverage

Universidad de Chile

22
Lost

Audax Italiano

The model leans Universidad de Chile at 55%. Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 1.84, Audax Italiano 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Universidad de Chile won 3 of their last 5; Audax Italiano won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Universidad de Chile63%1.59
XDraw24%4.17
2Audax Italiano13%7.70

Pick: Universidad de Chile. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.84 – 0.72
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes43%No57%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.3%
  • 2013.1%
  • 1110.2%
  • 219.4%
  • 308.0%
  • 007.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Universidad de Chile −1
Universidad de Chile lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.538%62%
-138%26%36%
-0.564%36%
064%22%14%
+0.586%14%
+186%10%4%
+1.596%4%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.