Predictions · Cup Grp. D · outside model coverage

Santiago Wanderers

23
Won

Universidad de Chile

The model leans Universidad de Chile at 50%. Expected goals: Santiago Wanderers 0.90, Universidad de Chile 1.63. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Santiago Wanderers won 1 of their last 5; Universidad de Chile won 3 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Santiago Wanderers19%5.14
XDraw27%3.70
2Universidad de Chile54%1.87

Pick: Universidad de Chile. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.90 – 1.63
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.546%54%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 0113.0%
  • 1111.7%
  • 0210.6%
  • 129.5%
  • 008.0%
  • 107.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Universidad de Chile −0.5
Santiago Wanderers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.57%93%
-17%14%79%
-0.521%79%
021%25%55%
+0.545%55%
+145%25%29%
+1.571%29%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.