Santiago Wanderers
Universidad de Chile
The model leans Universidad de Chile at 50%. Expected goals: Santiago Wanderers 0.90, Universidad de Chile 1.63. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Santiago Wanderers won 1 of their last 5; Universidad de Chile won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santiago Wanderers | 19% | 5.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Universidad de Chile | 54% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad de Chile. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 1.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.0%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.0%
- 1–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad de Chile −0.5| Santiago Wanderers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 25% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.