Santiago Wanderers
Puerto Montt
The model leans Santiago Wanderers at 51%. Expected goals: Santiago Wanderers 1.82, Puerto Montt 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Santiago Wanderers won 1 of their last 5; Puerto Montt won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santiago Wanderers | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Puerto Montt | 17% | 5.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: Santiago Wanderers. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.1%
- 2–011.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.7%
- 3–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Santiago Wanderers −1| Santiago Wanderers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.