Puerto Montt
Antofagasta
The model leans Antofagasta at 37%. Expected goals: Puerto Montt 0.97, Antofagasta 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. Puerto Montt won 3 of their last 6; Antofagasta won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Puerto Montt | 29% | 3.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Antofagasta | 38% | 2.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Antofagasta. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.1%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Puerto Montt 0| Puerto Montt line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 30% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.