Deportes Santa Cruz
Puerto Montt
The model leans Deportes Santa Cruz at 37%. Expected goals: Deportes Santa Cruz 1.23, Puerto Montt 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Deportes Santa Cruz won 2 of their last 4; Puerto Montt won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportes Santa Cruz | 39% | 2.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Puerto Montt | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportes Santa Cruz. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–010.4%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportes Santa Cruz 0| Deportes Santa Cruz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.