Rangers
Deportes Santa Cruz
The model leans Deportes Santa Cruz at 37%. Expected goals: Rangers 1.13, Deportes Santa Cruz 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Rangers won 1 of their last 3; Deportes Santa Cruz won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rangers | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Santa Cruz | 38% | 2.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportes Santa Cruz. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rangers 0| Rangers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 28% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.