Predictions · Chile Primera B · outside model coverage

San Marcos

12
Lost

Rangers

The model leans San Marcos at 60%. Expected goals: San Marcos 1.76, Rangers 0.48. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 67%. San Marcos won 0 of their last 6; Rangers won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1San Marcos68%1.47
XDraw23%4.26
2Rangers9%11.67

Pick: San Marcos. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.76 – 0.48
LineOverUnder
1.566%34%
2.539%61%
3.519%81%
Both teams to scoreYes32%No68%

Most likely scores

  • 1018.7%
  • 2016.5%
  • 0010.6%
  • 309.7%
  • 119.0%
  • 217.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: San Marcos −1
San Marcos lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.541%59%
-141%28%31%
-0.569%31%
069%22%9%
+0.591%9%
+191%8%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.