Coquimbo Unido
San Marcos
The model leans Coquimbo Unido at 55%. Expected goals: Coquimbo Unido 1.78, San Marcos 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. Coquimbo Unido won 2 of their last 4; San Marcos won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coquimbo Unido | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.13 | – | – | – |
| 2San Marcos | 11% | 8.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coquimbo Unido. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.1%
- 2–014.4%
- 1–110.0%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coquimbo Unido −1| Coquimbo Unido line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 22% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.