Predictions · Chile Primera B · outside model coverage
Curico Unido
1–2
Lost
Deportes Santa Cruz
The model leans Curico Unido at 37%. Expected goals: Curico Unido 1.42, Deportes Santa Cruz 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match40
28
32
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Curico Unido | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportes Santa Cruz | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Curico Unido. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 22% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Curico Unido 0| Curico Unido line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 22% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.