Huachipato
Puerto Montt
The model leans Huachipato at 61%. Expected goals: Huachipato 2.01, Puerto Montt 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 58%. Huachipato won 0 of their last 3; Puerto Montt won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Huachipato | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Puerto Montt | 10% | 10.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: Huachipato. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.01 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.3%
- 1–014.2%
- 3–09.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 39% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Huachipato −1.5| Huachipato line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 20% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.